Chengdu Better City 3–1 Meizhou Kejia

Chengdu Better City

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Meizhou Kejia

10/17/2025

Super League · Round 27Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Chengdu Better City65%

×Draw20%

Meizhou Kejia15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chengdu Better CityExpected goals in this matchMeizhou Kejia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

0.86

Chengdu Better City

2.05

Meizhou Kejia

0.86

Chengdu Better City creates 138% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 62 away

2.10

creates per match

0.94

0.78

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Chengdu Better City

2.10

Meizhou Kejia

0.94

allows per match

Chengdu Better City

0.78

Meizhou Kejia

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chengdu Better City+0.00on par

Meizhou Kejia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chengdu Better City ↓

Meizhou Kejia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Chengdu Better City or draw

85%

Chengdu Better City or Meizhou Kejia

80%

Draw or Meizhou Kejia

35%

Winning margin

Chengdu Better City wins by 2+

40%

Meizhou Kejia wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Chengdu Better City 1+ goals

87%

Chengdu Better City 2+ goals

61%

Chengdu Better City 3+ goals

33%

Meizhou Kejia 1+ goals

58%

Meizhou Kejia 2+ goals

21%

Meizhou Kejia 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Chengdu Better City (draw refunded)

81%

Meizhou Kejia (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chengdu Better City at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.78 · 72 matches

Meizhou Kejia away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.00 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chengdu Better City attack 2.10 + Meizhou Kejia defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.05

Meizhou Kejia attack 0.94 + Chengdu Better City defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Chengdu Better City scores more

65%

level

20%

Meizhou Kejia scores more

15%

Chengdu Better City at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Chengdu Better City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff