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Chengdu Better City vs Hebei Zhongji — FA Cup 2019

Chengdu Better City
Chengdu Better City
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Hebei Zhongji
Hebei Zhongji
11/16/2022FA CupFA Cup · 2nd RoundShuangliu Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Chengdu Better City60%
×Draw23%
Hebei Zhongji16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chengdu Better City
1.73
Hebei Zhongji
0.77

Chengdu Better City creates 125% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Chengdu Better City
1.80
Hebei Zhongji
0.33

allows per match

Chengdu Better City
1.20
Hebei Zhongji
1.67

finishing

Chengdu Better City+0.00on par
Hebei Zhongji+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chengdu Better City ↓

Hebei Zhongji →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Chengdu Better City or draw
84%
Chengdu Better City or Hebei Zhongji
77%
Draw or Hebei Zhongji
40%

Winning margin

Chengdu Better City wins by 2+
34%
Hebei Zhongji wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Chengdu Better City 1+ goals
82%
Chengdu Better City 2+ goals
52%
Chengdu Better City 3+ goals
25%
Hebei Zhongji 1+ goals
54%
Hebei Zhongji 2+ goals
18%
Hebei Zhongji 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Chengdu Better City (draw refunded)
79%
Hebei Zhongji (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chengdu Better City at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Hebei Zhongji away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chengdu Better City attack 1.80 + Hebei Zhongji defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.73

Hebei Zhongji attack 0.33 + Chengdu Better City defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Chengdu Better City scores more
60%
level
23%
Hebei Zhongji scores more
16%

Chengdu Better City at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Chengdu Better City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chengdu Better City vs Hebei Zhongji

Chengdu Better City beat Hebei Zhongji 3-0 in FA Cup on November 16, 2022.

The match was played at Shuangliu Sports Centre in Chengdu.