Chengdu Better City 3–0 Guangzhou R&F

Chengdu Better City

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Guangzhou R&F

11/25/2022

Super League · Round 27Mission Hills Football Base Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Chengdu Better City60%

×Draw22%

Guangzhou R&F18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chengdu Better CityExpected goals in this matchGuangzhou R&F

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

0.97

Chengdu Better City

1.96

Guangzhou R&F

0.97

Chengdu Better City creates 102% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 70 away

2.10

creates per match

1.16

0.78

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Chengdu Better City

2.10

Guangzhou R&F

1.16

allows per match

Chengdu Better City

0.78

Guangzhou R&F

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chengdu Better City+0.00on par

Guangzhou R&F+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chengdu Better City ↓

Guangzhou R&F →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Chengdu Better City or draw

82%

Chengdu Better City or Guangzhou R&F

78%

Draw or Guangzhou R&F

40%

Winning margin

Chengdu Better City wins by 2+

36%

Guangzhou R&F wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Chengdu Better City 1+ goals

86%

Chengdu Better City 2+ goals

58%

Chengdu Better City 3+ goals

31%

Guangzhou R&F 1+ goals

62%

Guangzhou R&F 2+ goals

25%

Guangzhou R&F 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Chengdu Better City (draw refunded)

77%

Guangzhou R&F (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chengdu Better City at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.78 · 72 matches

Guangzhou R&F away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.81 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chengdu Better City attack 2.10 + Guangzhou R&F defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.96

Guangzhou R&F attack 1.16 + Chengdu Better City defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Chengdu Better City scores more

60%

level

22%

Guangzhou R&F scores more

18%

Chengdu Better City at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Chengdu Better City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff