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Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Zhixing — Super League 2021

Chengdu Better City
Chengdu Better City
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dalian Zhixing
Dalian Zhixing
H. Hu 57'
Y. Gurfinkel 39'
4/6/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 5Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Chengdu Better City62%
×Draw20%
Dalian Zhixing17%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chengdu Better City
2.11
Dalian Zhixing
1.02

Chengdu Better City creates 107% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

Chengdu Better City
2.34
Dalian Zhixing
1.07

allows per match

Chengdu Better City
0.97
Dalian Zhixing
1.89

finishing

Chengdu Better City-1.09scores less
Dalian Zhixing+0.07on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chengdu Better City ↓

Dalian Zhixing →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Chengdu Better City or draw
83%
Chengdu Better City or Dalian Zhixing
80%
Draw or Dalian Zhixing
38%

Winning margin

Chengdu Better City wins by 2+
39%
Dalian Zhixing wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Chengdu Better City 1+ goals
88%
Chengdu Better City 2+ goals
62%
Chengdu Better City 3+ goals
35%
Dalian Zhixing 1+ goals
64%
Dalian Zhixing 2+ goals
27%
Dalian Zhixing 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Chengdu Better City (draw refunded)
78%
Dalian Zhixing (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chengdu Better City at home — creates 2.34, concedes 0.97 · 8 matches

Dalian Zhixing away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.89 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chengdu Better City attack 2.34 + Dalian Zhixing defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.11

Dalian Zhixing attack 1.07 + Chengdu Better City defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Chengdu Better City scores more
62%
level
20%
Dalian Zhixing scores more
17%

Chengdu Better City at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Chengdu Better City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
Y. GurfinkelChengdu Better CityChengdu Better City · D
8.7

Match Events

19'
Dinghao Yan
26'
Yue Song
32'
Zhu Pengyu
34'
Bo Sun
34'
Yang Mingrui
39'
Y. Gurfinkel
46'
Yang Ming-Yang← Yan Dinghao
46'
Fernando Karanga← C. Malele
46'
Cao Haiqing← Yang Mingrui
52'
Yue Song
52'
Yue Song
57'
H. Hu↳ Yuan Mincheng
61'
Wen Jiabao← P. Zhu
61'
Fei Yu← Sun Bo
75'
P. Delgado← Romulo
78'
Zhao Xuebin← Lu Zhuoyi
85'
Yang Shuai← T. Letschert
85'
M. Iminqari← Wei Shihao
90+3'
Tang Miao← H. Hu

Possession

68%Chengdu

Shots

16Chengdu

Pass accuracy

55%Chengdu

Statistics

ChengduDalian
Overview
68%Possession32%
16Total Shots6
1.32Expected Goals (xG)0.51
7Corners3
17Fouls13
Shots
16Total Shots6
6On Target1
5Off Target3
5Blocked2
10Inside Box3
6Outside Box3
Passing
68%Possession32%
558Total Passes263
495Accurate Passes192
89%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
17Fouls13
1Yellow Cards5
0Red Cards1
4Offsides1

Match Recap: Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Zhixing

Chengdu Better City beat Dalian Zhixing 2-0 in Super League on April 6, 2025.

Goals: Y. Gurfinkel (39'), H. Hu (57').

Chengdu Better City controlled possession (68%) and registered 16 shots to 6.

The match was played at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park in Chengdu.