Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Aerbin — Super League 2018

Chengdu Better City
Chengdu Better City
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dalian Aerbin
Dalian Aerbin
12/31/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 34Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Chengdu Better City61%
×Draw21%
Dalian Aerbin17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chengdu Better City
1.98
Dalian Aerbin
0.94

Chengdu Better City creates 111% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 84 away

creates per match

Chengdu Better City
2.10
Dalian Aerbin
1.10

allows per match

Chengdu Better City
0.78
Dalian Aerbin
1.85

finishing

Chengdu Better City+0.00on par
Dalian Aerbin+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chengdu Better City ↓

Dalian Aerbin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Chengdu Better City or draw
83%
Chengdu Better City or Dalian Aerbin
79%
Draw or Dalian Aerbin
39%

Winning margin

Chengdu Better City wins by 2+
37%
Dalian Aerbin wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Chengdu Better City 1+ goals
86%
Chengdu Better City 2+ goals
59%
Chengdu Better City 3+ goals
31%
Dalian Aerbin 1+ goals
61%
Dalian Aerbin 2+ goals
24%
Dalian Aerbin 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Chengdu Better City (draw refunded)
78%
Dalian Aerbin (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chengdu Better City at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.78 · 72 matches

Dalian Aerbin away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.85 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chengdu Better City attack 2.10 + Dalian Aerbin defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.98

Dalian Aerbin attack 1.10 + Chengdu Better City defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Chengdu Better City scores more
61%
level
21%
Dalian Aerbin scores more
17%

Chengdu Better City at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Chengdu Better City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Aerbin

Chengdu Better City beat Dalian Aerbin 3-0 in Super League on December 31, 2022.

The match was played at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park in Chengdu.