Chengdu Better City 0–1 Buriram United

Chengdu Better City

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Buriram United

Bissoli 50'

2/10/2026

AFC Champions League · League Phase East - 7Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Chengdu Better City49%

×Draw29%

Buriram United22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chengdu Better CityExpected goals in this matchBuriram United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.74

Chengdu Better City

1.27

Buriram United

0.74

Chengdu Better City creates 72% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 22 away

1.00

creates per match

0.68

0.80

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Chengdu Better City

1.00

Buriram United

0.68

allows per match

Chengdu Better City

0.80

Buriram United

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chengdu Better City+0.00on par

Buriram United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chengdu Better City ↓

Buriram United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Chengdu Better City or draw

78%

Chengdu Better City or Buriram United

71%

Draw or Buriram United

51%

Winning margin

Chengdu Better City wins by 2+

23%

Buriram United wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Chengdu Better City 1+ goals

72%

Chengdu Better City 2+ goals

36%

Chengdu Better City 3+ goals

14%

Buriram United 1+ goals

52%

Buriram United 2+ goals

17%

Buriram United 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Chengdu Better City (draw refunded)

69%

Buriram United (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chengdu Better City at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Buriram United away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.55 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chengdu Better City attack 1.00 + Buriram United defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.27

Buriram United attack 0.68 + Chengdu Better City defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Chengdu Better City scores more

49%

level

29%

Buriram United scores more

22%

Chengdu Better City at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Chengdu Better City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Wei Shihao

Chengdu Better City · M

7.7

Match Events

18'

19'

33'

38'

45+6'

45+1'

Suphanat MueantaGoal cancelled

50'

50'

57'

60'

62'

63'

65'

M. Yimingkari← Liao Lisheng

65'

Wang Ziming← Romulo

72'

K. Junker← S. Mueanta

75'

Rubén Sánchez

81'

Dongsheng Wang

82'

E. Sorokin← Y. Li

82'

K. Aizimaiti← Wang Dongsheng

90'

Peter Žulj

90+3'

T. Bunmathan← G. Causic

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChengduBuriram

Overview

58%Possession42%

8Total Shots11

0.33Expected Goals (xG)0.78

5Corners9

13Fouls14

Shots

8Total Shots11

1On Target3

5Off Target3

2Blocked5

3Inside Box9

5Outside Box2

Passing

58%Possession42%

423Total Passes287

335Accurate Passes217

79%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

0.45Goals Prevented0.45

Discipline

13Fouls14

6Yellow Cards6

2Offsides1