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Chengdu Better City vs Beijing Guoan — Super League 2026

Chengdu Better City
Chengdu Better City
Preview
11:35
Beijing Guoan
Beijing Guoan
7/26/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 20Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park
Big match
57%
Chengdu Better City
model favours
57%22%21%

Beijing Guoan have scored in 12 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Chengdu Better City57%
×Draw22%
Beijing Guoan21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chengdu Better City
1.92
Beijing Guoan
1.07

Chengdu Better City creates 79% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 15 away

creates per match

Chengdu Better City
2.35
Beijing Guoan
1.25

allows per match

Chengdu Better City
0.89
Beijing Guoan
1.49

finishing

Chengdu Better City-0.40scores less
Beijing Guoan+0.48scores more

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chengdu Better City ↓

Beijing Guoan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Chengdu Better City or draw
79%
Chengdu Better City or Beijing Guoan
78%
Draw or Beijing Guoan
43%

Winning margin

Chengdu Better City wins by 2+
33%
Beijing Guoan wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Chengdu Better City 1+ goals
85%
Chengdu Better City 2+ goals
57%
Chengdu Better City 3+ goals
30%
Beijing Guoan 1+ goals
66%
Beijing Guoan 2+ goals
29%
Beijing Guoan 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Chengdu Better City (draw refunded)
73%
Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chengdu Better City at home — creates 2.35, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Beijing Guoan away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.49 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chengdu Better City attack 2.35 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.92

Beijing Guoan attack 1.25 + Chengdu Better City defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Chengdu Better City scores more
57%
level
22%
Beijing Guoan scores more
21%

Chengdu Better City at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Chengdu Better City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Chengdu Better City are unbeaten in 6 straight
  • Beijing Guoan are unbeaten in 6 straight
  • Chengdu Better City win just 44% against the top half (vs 69% against the bottom)
  • Beijing Guoan win just 40% against the top half (vs 69% against the bottom)
  • 37% of Chengdu Better City’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Beijing Guoan outscore their xG (2.0 vs 1.7 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Chengdu Better City
Possession-dominant
Beijing Guoan
Possession-dominant
56%Possession61%
81%Pass accuracy83%
15.9Shots14.8
1.99xGBiggest gap1.69
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Chengdu Better CityBeijing Guoan

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
Chengdu Better City
3
Draws
4
Beijing Guoan
Avg goals: 2.6BTTS: 60%
2–12–01–12–21–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
City
DDDDW
Guoan
WDWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chengdu Better City face Beijing Guoan (Super League)

Super League returns with Chengdu Better City hosting Beijing Guoan. Match starts July 26, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Chengdu Better City host Beijing Guoan at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.