Chengdu Better City 2–0 Beijing Guoan

Chengdu Better City

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Beijing Guoan

T. Letschert 66'

P. Delgado 33'

7/26/2025

Super League · Round 18Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Chengdu Better City57%

×Draw22%

Beijing Guoan21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chengdu Better CityExpected goals in this matchBeijing Guoan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.07

Chengdu Better City

1.92

Beijing Guoan

1.07

Chengdu Better City creates 79% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 15 away

2.35

creates per match

1.25

0.89

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Chengdu Better City

2.35

Beijing Guoan

1.25

allows per match

Chengdu Better City

0.89

Beijing Guoan

1.49

-0.40scores less than expected

finishing

+0.48scores more than expected

finishing

Chengdu Better City-0.40scores less

Beijing Guoan+0.48scores more

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chengdu Better City ↓

Beijing Guoan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Chengdu Better City or draw

79%

Chengdu Better City or Beijing Guoan

78%

Draw or Beijing Guoan

43%

Winning margin

Chengdu Better City wins by 2+

33%

Beijing Guoan wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Chengdu Better City 1+ goals

85%

Chengdu Better City 2+ goals

57%

Chengdu Better City 3+ goals

30%

Beijing Guoan 1+ goals

66%

Beijing Guoan 2+ goals

29%

Beijing Guoan 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Chengdu Better City (draw refunded)

73%

Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chengdu Better City at home — creates 2.35, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Beijing Guoan away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.49 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chengdu Better City attack 2.35 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.92

Beijing Guoan attack 1.25 + Chengdu Better City defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Chengdu Better City scores more

57%

level

22%

Beijing Guoan scores more

21%

Chengdu Better City at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Chengdu Better City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

T. Letschert

Chengdu Better City · D

8.7

Match Events

33'

P. Delgado↳ Gan Chao

46'

Fan Shuangjie← Wu Shaocong

58'

Lin Liangming← Wang Ziming

58'

Yang Liyu← N. Muhmet

66'

T. Letschert↳ P. Delgado

68'

Feng Boxuan← Guga

74'

Li Lei← Cao Yongjing

80'

Y. Dong← Y. Li

86'

Liao Rongxiang← Romulo

90+6'

Gang Wang

90+1'

Li Moyu← P. Delgado

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChengduBeijing

Overview

35%Possession65%

19Total Shots8

2.26Expected Goals (xG)1.02

4Corners4

7Fouls19

Shots

19Total Shots8

8On Target2

8Off Target3

3Blocked3

11Inside Box5

8Outside Box3

Passing

35%Possession65%

281Total Passes532

223Accurate Passes462

79%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

7Fouls19

0Yellow Cards1

4Offsides2