Cheng Fung 3–1 Tak Chun Ka I: Result & Stats

Cheng Fung

FT

3 – 1

Tak Chun Ka I

4/29/2023

Primeira Divisão · Round 9Macau Olympic Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Cheng Fung72%

×Draw14%

Tak Chun Ka I14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cheng FungExpected goals in this matchTak Chun Ka I

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.63

1.63

Cheng Fung

3.63

Tak Chun Ka I

1.63

Cheng Fung creates 123% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 16 away

2.19

creates per match

1.13

2.13

allows per match

5.06

creates per match

Cheng Fung

2.19

Tak Chun Ka I

1.13

allows per match

Cheng Fung

2.13

Tak Chun Ka I

5.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cheng Fung+0.00on par

Tak Chun Ka I+0.00on par

Total goals

Over89
Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheng Fung ↓

Tak Chun Ka I →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–02%

1–13%

1–23%

1–31%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–17%

4–25%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

89%11%3.5

75%25%4.5

57%43%

Double chance

Cheng Fung or draw

86%

Cheng Fung or Tak Chun Ka I

86%

Draw or Tak Chun Ka I

28%

Winning margin

Cheng Fung wins by 2+

54%

Tak Chun Ka I wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Cheng Fung 1+ goals

97%

Cheng Fung 2+ goals

87%

Cheng Fung 3+ goals

68%

Tak Chun Ka I 1+ goals

80%

Tak Chun Ka I 2+ goals

48%

Tak Chun Ka I 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Cheng Fung (draw refunded)

84%

Tak Chun Ka I (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheng Fung at home — creates 2.19, concedes 2.13 · 31 matches

Tak Chun Ka I away — creates 1.13, concedes 5.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheng Fung attack 2.19 + Tak Chun Ka I defence 5.06 → ÷2 → 3.63

Tak Chun Ka I attack 1.13 + Cheng Fung defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Cheng Fung scores more

72%

level

14%

Tak Chun Ka I scores more

14%

Cheng Fung at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Cheng Fung will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff