Chemnitzer FC 2–2 Rot-weiss Erfurt: Result & Stats

Chemnitzer FC

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Rot-weiss Erfurt

T. Müller 72'

J. Wolter 6'

R. Hajrulla 52', 30'

5/19/2024

League #85 · Nordost - 34Stadion Chemnitz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Chemnitzer FC42%

×Draw23%

Rot-weiss Erfurt34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chemnitzer FCExpected goals in this matchRot-weiss Erfurt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.50

Chemnitzer FC

1.68

Rot-weiss Erfurt

1.50

Chemnitzer FC creates 12% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

1.36

creates per match

1.64

1.36

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Chemnitzer FC

1.36

Rot-weiss Erfurt

1.64

allows per match

Chemnitzer FC

1.36

Rot-weiss Erfurt

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chemnitzer FC+0.00on par

Rot-weiss Erfurt+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chemnitzer FC ↓

Rot-weiss Erfurt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Chemnitzer FC or draw

66%

Chemnitzer FC or Rot-weiss Erfurt

77%

Draw or Rot-weiss Erfurt

58%

Winning margin

Chemnitzer FC wins by 2+

22%

Rot-weiss Erfurt wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Chemnitzer FC 1+ goals

81%

Chemnitzer FC 2+ goals

50%

Chemnitzer FC 3+ goals

24%

Rot-weiss Erfurt 1+ goals

78%

Rot-weiss Erfurt 2+ goals

44%

Rot-weiss Erfurt 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Chemnitzer FC (draw refunded)

55%

Rot-weiss Erfurt (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chemnitzer FC at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

Rot-weiss Erfurt away — creates 1.64, concedes 2.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chemnitzer FC attack 1.36 + Rot-weiss Erfurt defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.68

Rot-weiss Erfurt attack 1.64 + Chemnitzer FC defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chemnitzer FC scores more

42%

level

23%

Rot-weiss Erfurt scores more

34%

Chemnitzer FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Chemnitzer FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

30'

52'

64'

68'

M. Badu← K. Seidemann

70'

72'

T. Müller

75'

D. Muteba← M. Langner

83'

A. Adesida← B. Moritz

84'

R. Berger← L. Damer

Chemnitzer

Rot-weiss

1

Schellenb

6

Awoudja

33

Zeller

2

▼

44

5

16

31

11

⚽2

Hajrulla

19

▼

Seidemann

28

▼

33

21

24

23

16

4

38

⚽

Müller

13

▼

Damer

25

Eppendorf

7

⚽

Wolter

26

▼

Stagge

Manager: C. Tiffert

64'▲S. Keller←▼L. Stagge

84'▲R. Berger←▼L. Damer

Chemnitzer FC substitutes

18Keller22Berger3Schreiber9Roscher14Akindele17Abayomi32Wimmer

Manager: F. Gerber

68'▲M. Badu←▼K. Seidemann

75'▲D. Muteba←▼M. Langner

83'▲A. Adesida←▼B. Moritz

Rot-weiss Erfurt substitutes

7Badu8Muteba15Adesida23Mansaray30Weinhauer40Plath