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Chemnitzer FC vs Plauen — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Chemnitzer FC
Chemnitzer FC
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Plauen
Plauen
M. Grimaldi 28', 5'
T. Stockinger 15'
1/23/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Chemnitzer FC67%
×Draw17%
Plauen16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chemnitzer FC
2.65
Plauen
1.25

Chemnitzer FC creates 112% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

creates per match

Chemnitzer FC
2.09
Plauen
1.40

allows per match

Chemnitzer FC
1.09
Plauen
3.20

finishing

Chemnitzer FC+0.00on par
Plauen+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chemnitzer FC ↓

Plauen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Chemnitzer FC or draw
84%
Chemnitzer FC or Plauen
83%
Draw or Plauen
33%

Winning margin

Chemnitzer FC wins by 2+
45%
Plauen wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Chemnitzer FC 1+ goals
93%
Chemnitzer FC 2+ goals
74%
Chemnitzer FC 3+ goals
48%
Plauen 1+ goals
71%
Plauen 2+ goals
36%
Plauen 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Chemnitzer FC (draw refunded)
80%
Plauen (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chemnitzer FC at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Plauen away — creates 1.40, concedes 3.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chemnitzer FC attack 2.09 + Plauen defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.65

Plauen attack 1.40 + Chemnitzer FC defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Chemnitzer FC scores more
67%
level
17%
Plauen scores more
16%

Chemnitzer FC at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Chemnitzer FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
M. Grimaldi
15'
T. Stockinger
28'
M. Grimaldi
Chemnitzer
Plauen
B. Duda
Manager: B. Duda
K. Oswald
Manager: K. Oswald

Match Recap: Chemnitzer FC vs Plauen

Chemnitzer FC beat Plauen 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 23, 2026.

Goals: M. Grimaldi (5', 28'), T. Stockinger (15').