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Chemnitzer FC vs FC Schweinfurt 05 — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Chemnitzer FC
Chemnitzer FC
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
FC Schweinfurt 05
FC Schweinfurt 05
7/11/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Chemnitzer FC59%
×Draw20%
FC Schweinfurt 0521%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chemnitzer FC
2.34
FC Schweinfurt 05
1.35

Chemnitzer FC creates 73% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

creates per match

Chemnitzer FC
2.09
FC Schweinfurt 05
1.60

allows per match

Chemnitzer FC
1.09
FC Schweinfurt 05
2.60

finishing

Chemnitzer FC+0.00on par
FC Schweinfurt 05+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chemnitzer FC ↓

FC Schweinfurt 05 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Chemnitzer FC or draw
79%
Chemnitzer FC or FC Schweinfurt 05
80%
Draw or FC Schweinfurt 05
41%

Winning margin

Chemnitzer FC wins by 2+
37%
FC Schweinfurt 05 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Chemnitzer FC 1+ goals
90%
Chemnitzer FC 2+ goals
67%
Chemnitzer FC 3+ goals
41%
FC Schweinfurt 05 1+ goals
74%
FC Schweinfurt 05 2+ goals
39%
FC Schweinfurt 05 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Chemnitzer FC (draw refunded)
73%
FC Schweinfurt 05 (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chemnitzer FC at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

FC Schweinfurt 05 away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chemnitzer FC attack 2.09 + FC Schweinfurt 05 defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.34

FC Schweinfurt 05 attack 1.60 + Chemnitzer FC defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Chemnitzer FC scores more
59%
level
20%
FC Schweinfurt 05 scores more
21%

Chemnitzer FC at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Chemnitzer FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Chemnitzer
FC
B. Duda
Manager: B. Duda
Benjamin Freund
Manager: Benjamin Freund

Friendlies Clubs: Chemnitzer FC 4–0 FC Schweinfurt 05

Chemnitzer FC beat FC Schweinfurt 05 4-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 11, 2026.