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Chemnitzer FC vs Alemannia Aachen — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Chemnitzer FC
Chemnitzer FC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Alemannia Aachen
Alemannia Aachen
1/16/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Chemnitzer FC30%
×Draw20%
Alemannia Aachen50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chemnitzer FC
1.75
Alemannia Aachen
2.27

Alemannia Aachen creates 30% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

creates per match

Chemnitzer FC
2.20
Alemannia Aachen
3.43

allows per match

Chemnitzer FC
1.10
Alemannia Aachen
1.29

finishing

Chemnitzer FC+0.00on par
Alemannia Aachen+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chemnitzer FC ↓

Alemannia Aachen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Chemnitzer FC or draw
50%
Chemnitzer FC or Alemannia Aachen
80%
Draw or Alemannia Aachen
70%

Winning margin

Chemnitzer FC wins by 2+
15%
Alemannia Aachen wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Chemnitzer FC 1+ goals
83%
Chemnitzer FC 2+ goals
52%
Chemnitzer FC 3+ goals
25%
Alemannia Aachen 1+ goals
90%
Alemannia Aachen 2+ goals
66%
Alemannia Aachen 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Chemnitzer FC (draw refunded)
38%
Alemannia Aachen (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chemnitzer FC at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

Alemannia Aachen away — creates 3.43, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chemnitzer FC attack 2.20 + Alemannia Aachen defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.75

Alemannia Aachen attack 3.43 + Chemnitzer FC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Chemnitzer FC scores more
30%
level
20%
Alemannia Aachen scores more
50%

Alemannia Aachen at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Alemannia Aachen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chemnitzer FC vs Alemannia Aachen

Chemnitzer FC and Alemannia Aachen drew 2-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 16, 2024.

The match was played at TBC in TBC.