Chemnitzer FC U19 3–0 Wolfsburg U19: Result & Stats

Chemnitzer FC U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Wolfsburg U19

M. Roscher 67'

P. Kämpfer 11', 9'

2/19/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 13Stadion im Sportforum Chemnitz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Chemnitzer FC U1922%

×Draw20%

Wolfsburg U1958%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chemnitzer FC U19Expected goals in this matchWolfsburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

2.27

Chemnitzer FC U19

1.32

Wolfsburg U19

2.27

Wolfsburg U19 creates 72% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 78 away

1.45

creates per match

2.40

2.15

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Chemnitzer FC U19

1.45

Wolfsburg U19

2.40

allows per match

Chemnitzer FC U19

2.15

Wolfsburg U19

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chemnitzer FC U19+0.00on par

Wolfsburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chemnitzer FC U19 ↓

Wolfsburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Chemnitzer FC U19 or draw

42%

Chemnitzer FC U19 or Wolfsburg U19

80%

Draw or Wolfsburg U19

78%

Winning margin

Chemnitzer FC U19 wins by 2+

9%

Wolfsburg U19 wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Chemnitzer FC U19 1+ goals

73%

Chemnitzer FC U19 2+ goals

38%

Chemnitzer FC U19 3+ goals

15%

Wolfsburg U19 1+ goals

90%

Wolfsburg U19 2+ goals

66%

Wolfsburg U19 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Chemnitzer FC U19 (draw refunded)

27%

Wolfsburg U19 (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chemnitzer FC U19 at home — creates 1.45, concedes 2.15 · 53 matches

Wolfsburg U19 away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.19 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chemnitzer FC U19 attack 1.45 + Wolfsburg U19 defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.32

Wolfsburg U19 attack 2.40 + Chemnitzer FC U19 defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Chemnitzer FC U19 scores more

22%

level

20%

Wolfsburg U19 scores more

58%

Wolfsburg U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Wolfsburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

P. Kämpfer

11'

P. Kämpfer

46'

A. Doci← A. Wagbe

46'

D. Boateng← E. Patut

67'

M. Roscher

68'

R. Riesen← P. Kämpfer

71'

J. Jusić← T. Seidel

75'

D. Nuhanović← S. Busch

85'

R. Frömmel← F. Heidler

85'

Joâo Pinto← M. Mazzone

90'

L. Lungwitz← D. Wunsch

Chemnitzer

Wolfsburg

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽2

▼

Kämpfer

Manager: J. Stephan

68'▲R. Riesen←▼P. Kämpfer

71'▲J. Jusić←▼T. Seidel

85'▲R. Frömmel←▼F. Heidler

90'▲L. Lungwitz←▼D. Wunsch

Chemnitzer FC U19 substitutes

RiesenJusićFrömmelLungwitzPawletta

Manager: C. Wimmer

46'▲A. Doci←▼A. Wagbe

46'▲D. Boateng←▼E. Patut

75'▲D. Nuhanović←▼S. Busch

85'▲Joâo Pinto←▼M. Mazzone

Wolfsburg U19 substitutes

DociBoatengNuhanovićPintoRodriguezSchönmottelTomljenović

Match Recap: Chemnitzer FC U19 vs Wolfsburg U19

Chemnitzer FC U19 beat Wolfsburg U19 3-0 in U19 Bundesliga on February 19, 2022.

Goals: P. Kämpfer (9', 11'), M. Roscher (67').

The match was played at Stadion im Sportforum Chemnitz in Chemnitz.

Chemnitzer FC U19 vs Wolfsburg U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Chemnitzer FC U19 vs Wolfsburg U19