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Chemnitzer FC U19 vs Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Chemnitzer FC U19
Chemnitzer FC U19
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19
3/28/2026U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Chemnitzer FC U1952%
×Draw21%
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U1927%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chemnitzer FC U19
2.14
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19
1.49

Chemnitzer FC U19 creates 44% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 26 away

creates per match

Chemnitzer FC U19
1.43
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19
0.81

allows per match

Chemnitzer FC U19
2.17
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19
2.85

finishing

Chemnitzer FC U19+0.00on par
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chemnitzer FC U19 ↓

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Chemnitzer FC U19 or draw
73%
Chemnitzer FC U19 or Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19
79%
Draw or Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19
48%

Winning margin

Chemnitzer FC U19 wins by 2+
31%
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Chemnitzer FC U19 1+ goals
88%
Chemnitzer FC U19 2+ goals
63%
Chemnitzer FC U19 3+ goals
36%
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 1+ goals
77%
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 2+ goals
44%
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Chemnitzer FC U19 (draw refunded)
66%
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chemnitzer FC U19 at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.17 · 54 matches

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.85 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chemnitzer FC U19 attack 1.43 + Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.14

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 attack 0.81 + Chemnitzer FC U19 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Chemnitzer FC U19 scores more
52%
level
21%
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 scores more
27%

Chemnitzer FC U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Chemnitzer FC U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 Bundesliga: Chemnitzer FC U19 5–0 Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19

Chemnitzer FC U19 beat Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 5-0 in U19 Bundesliga on March 28, 2026.