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Chemnitzer FC U19 vs Havelse U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Chemnitzer FC U19
Chemnitzer FC U19
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Havelse U19
Havelse U19
4/11/2026U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Chemnitzer FC U1919%
×Draw22%
Havelse U1959%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chemnitzer FC U19
0.99
Havelse U19
1.92

Havelse U19 creates 94% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 9 away

creates per match

Chemnitzer FC U19
1.43
Havelse U19
1.67

allows per match

Chemnitzer FC U19
2.17
Havelse U19
0.56

finishing

Chemnitzer FC U19+0.00on par
Havelse U19+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chemnitzer FC U19 ↓

Havelse U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Chemnitzer FC U19 or draw
41%
Chemnitzer FC U19 or Havelse U19
78%
Draw or Havelse U19
81%

Winning margin

Chemnitzer FC U19 wins by 2+
7%
Havelse U19 wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Chemnitzer FC U19 1+ goals
63%
Chemnitzer FC U19 2+ goals
26%
Chemnitzer FC U19 3+ goals
8%
Havelse U19 1+ goals
85%
Havelse U19 2+ goals
57%
Havelse U19 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Chemnitzer FC U19 (draw refunded)
24%
Havelse U19 (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chemnitzer FC U19 at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.17 · 54 matches

Havelse U19 away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chemnitzer FC U19 attack 1.43 + Havelse U19 defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.99

Havelse U19 attack 1.67 + Chemnitzer FC U19 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Chemnitzer FC U19 scores more
19%
level
22%
Havelse U19 scores more
59%

Havelse U19 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Havelse U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chemnitzer FC U19 0 – 1 Havelse U19

Havelse U19 beat Chemnitzer FC U19 1-0 in U19 Bundesliga on April 11, 2026.