Chemnitzer FC U19 2–2 Hannover 96 U19

Chemnitzer FC U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Hannover 96 U19

M. Kreckel 77'

M. Christl 61'

N. Marusenko 82' (pen)

B. Drath 33'

12/9/2017

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 15Stadion im Sportforum Chemnitz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Chemnitzer FC U1930%

×Draw21%

Hannover 96 U1949%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chemnitzer FC U19Expected goals in this matchHannover 96 U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

2.12

Chemnitzer FC U19

1.62

Hannover 96 U19

2.12

Hannover 96 U19 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 74 away

1.43

creates per match

2.07

2.17

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Chemnitzer FC U19

1.43

Hannover 96 U19

2.07

allows per match

Chemnitzer FC U19

2.17

Hannover 96 U19

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chemnitzer FC U19+0.00on par

Hannover 96 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chemnitzer FC U19 ↓

Hannover 96 U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Chemnitzer FC U19 or draw

51%

Chemnitzer FC U19 or Hannover 96 U19

79%

Draw or Hannover 96 U19

70%

Winning margin

Chemnitzer FC U19 wins by 2+

14%

Hannover 96 U19 wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Chemnitzer FC U19 1+ goals

80%

Chemnitzer FC U19 2+ goals

48%

Chemnitzer FC U19 3+ goals

22%

Hannover 96 U19 1+ goals

88%

Hannover 96 U19 2+ goals

62%

Hannover 96 U19 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Chemnitzer FC U19 (draw refunded)

38%

Hannover 96 U19 (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chemnitzer FC U19 at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.17 · 54 matches

Hannover 96 U19 away — creates 2.07, concedes 1.81 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chemnitzer FC U19 attack 1.43 + Hannover 96 U19 defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.62

Hannover 96 U19 attack 2.07 + Chemnitzer FC U19 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Chemnitzer FC U19 scores more

30%

level

21%

Hannover 96 U19 scores more

49%

Hannover 96 U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hannover 96 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

B. Drath

61'

M. Christl

72'

L. Gümpel← M. Christl

72'

J. Rufidis← H. Deliduman

77'

M. Kreckel

79'

J. Kühne← B. Trinks

79'

J. van Eupen← M. Đorđević

82'

N. MarusenkoPenalty

Chemnitzer

Hannover

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Christl

▼

Trinks

Schubert

Manager: K. Jendrossek

72'▲L. Gümpel←▼M. Christl

79'▲J. Kühne←▼B. Trinks

Chemnitzer FC U19 substitutes

GümpelKühneSchellGrätzMolnarSadlowskiOhme

Manager: C. Dabrowski

72'▲J. Rufidis←▼H. Deliduman

79'▲J. van Eupen←▼M. Đorđević

Hannover 96 U19 substitutes

RufidisEupenAytunBircanZellerSantosThórisson

Match Recap: Chemnitzer FC U19 vs Hannover 96 U19

Chemnitzer FC U19 and Hannover 96 U19 drew 2-2 in U19 Bundesliga on December 9, 2017.

Goals: B. Drath (33'), M. Christl (61'), M. Kreckel (77'), N. Marusenko (82' pen).

The match was played at Stadion im Sportforum Chemnitz in Chemnitz.

Chemnitzer FC U19 vs Hannover 96 U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Chemnitzer FC U19 vs Hannover 96 U19