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Chemnitzer FC U19 vs BAK 07 U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Chemnitzer FC U19
Chemnitzer FC U19
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
BAK 07 U19
BAK 07 U19
J. Ullmann 45'
T. Lewin 34'
J. Dietrich 60'
J. Völker 49'
L. Chen 45'
8/20/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 3Stadion im Sportforum Chemnitz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Chemnitzer FC U1946%
×Draw21%
BAK 07 U1933%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chemnitzer FC U19
2.11
BAK 07 U19
1.75

Chemnitzer FC U19 creates 21% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 33 away

creates per match

Chemnitzer FC U19
1.43
BAK 07 U19
1.33

allows per match

Chemnitzer FC U19
2.17
BAK 07 U19
2.79

finishing

Chemnitzer FC U19+0.00on par
BAK 07 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chemnitzer FC U19 ↓

BAK 07 U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Chemnitzer FC U19 or draw
67%
Chemnitzer FC U19 or BAK 07 U19
79%
Draw or BAK 07 U19
54%

Winning margin

Chemnitzer FC U19 wins by 2+
27%
BAK 07 U19 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Chemnitzer FC U19 1+ goals
88%
Chemnitzer FC U19 2+ goals
62%
Chemnitzer FC U19 3+ goals
35%
BAK 07 U19 1+ goals
83%
BAK 07 U19 2+ goals
52%
BAK 07 U19 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Chemnitzer FC U19 (draw refunded)
59%
BAK 07 U19 (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chemnitzer FC U19 at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.17 · 54 matches

BAK 07 U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.79 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chemnitzer FC U19 attack 1.43 + BAK 07 U19 defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.11

BAK 07 U19 attack 1.33 + Chemnitzer FC U19 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Chemnitzer FC U19 scores more
46%
level
21%
BAK 07 U19 scores more
33%

Chemnitzer FC U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chemnitzer FC U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
T. Lewin
45'
J. Ullmann
45'
L. Chen
49'
J. Völker
60'
J. Dietrich
Chemnitzer
BAK
T. Wappler
Manager: T. Wappler
J. Eckert
Manager: J. Eckert

Chemnitzer FC U19 2 – 3 BAK 07 U19

BAK 07 U19 beat Chemnitzer FC U19 3-2 in U19 Bundesliga on August 20, 2025.

Goals: T. Lewin (34'), J. Ullmann (45'), L. Chen (45'), J. Völker (49'), J. Dietrich (60').

The match was played at Stadion im Sportforum Chemnitz in Chemnitz.