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Suhul Shire vs Wolkite Ketema — Premier League 2019

Suhul Shire
Suhul Shire
CANC
00:00
Wolkite Ketema
Wolkite Ketema
4/11/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Suhul Shire31%
×Draw31%
Wolkite Ketema38%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Suhul Shire
0.94
Wolkite Ketema
1.07

Wolkite Ketema creates 14% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 66 away

creates per match

Suhul Shire
0.66
Wolkite Ketema
1.14

allows per match

Suhul Shire
1.00
Wolkite Ketema
1.21

finishing

Suhul Shire+0.00on par
Wolkite Ketema+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suhul Shire ↓

Wolkite Ketema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Suhul Shire or draw
62%
Suhul Shire or Wolkite Ketema
69%
Draw or Wolkite Ketema
69%

Winning margin

Suhul Shire wins by 2+
11%
Wolkite Ketema wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Suhul Shire 1+ goals
61%
Suhul Shire 2+ goals
24%
Suhul Shire 3+ goals
7%
Wolkite Ketema 1+ goals
66%
Wolkite Ketema 2+ goals
29%
Wolkite Ketema 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Suhul Shire (draw refunded)
45%
Wolkite Ketema (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suhul Shire at home — creates 0.66, concedes 1.00 · 44 matches

Wolkite Ketema away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.21 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suhul Shire attack 0.66 + Wolkite Ketema defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.94

Wolkite Ketema attack 1.14 + Suhul Shire defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Suhul Shire scores more
31%
level
31%
Wolkite Ketema scores more
38%

Wolkite Ketema at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Wolkite Ketema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Suhul Shire host Wolkite Ketema

April 11, 2020: Suhul Shire take on Wolkite Ketema in Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.