Chemik Police vs Gwardia Koszalin — III Liga - Group 2 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 17+ matches
Chemik Police19%
Gwardia Koszalin60%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Gwardia Koszalin creates 96% more chances
Season form · 17 home / 17 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over58
- Under42
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Chemik Police ↓
Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Chemik Police at home — creates 0.76, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches
Gwardia Koszalin away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Chemik Police attack 0.76 + Gwardia Koszalin defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.02
Gwardia Koszalin attack 1.35 + Chemik Police defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.00
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 60%?"
Gwardia Koszalin at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 60% does not mean "Gwardia Koszalin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Radunia Stężyca
Świt Skolwin
Polonia Środa
Starogard Gdański
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
Sokół Kleczew
Elana Toruń
Unia Janikowo
Jarota Jarocin
Bałtyk Koszalin
Nielba Wągrowiec
Flota Świnoujście
Bałtyk Gdynia
Pomorzanin Toruń
Unia Swarzędz
PrzodkowoGwardia Koszalin
Pogoń Szczecin II
Gryf Wejherowo
Górnik KoninChemik Police
Mieszko GnieznoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Chemik Police host Gwardia Koszalin on Friday, 7 August 2020 at 15:00. The match is part of the III Liga - Group 2 2020/2021 season.
Match Recap: Chemik Police vs Gwardia Koszalin
Gwardia Koszalin beat Chemik Police 6-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on August 7, 2020.
The match was played at Stadion OSiR in Police.