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Chemelil Sugar vs Zoo Kericho — FKF Premier League 2018

Chemelil Sugar
Chemelil Sugar
CANC
00:00
Zoo Kericho
Zoo Kericho
4/11/2020FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 28Chemelil Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Chemelil Sugar43%
×Draw27%
Zoo Kericho30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chemelil Sugar
1.37
Zoo Kericho
1.09

Chemelil Sugar creates 26% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 52 away

creates per match

Chemelil Sugar
0.80
Zoo Kericho
0.90

allows per match

Chemelil Sugar
1.28
Zoo Kericho
1.94

finishing

Chemelil Sugar+0.00on par
Zoo Kericho+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chemelil Sugar ↓

Zoo Kericho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Chemelil Sugar or draw
70%
Chemelil Sugar or Zoo Kericho
73%
Draw or Zoo Kericho
57%

Winning margin

Chemelil Sugar wins by 2+
20%
Zoo Kericho wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Chemelil Sugar 1+ goals
75%
Chemelil Sugar 2+ goals
40%
Chemelil Sugar 3+ goals
16%
Zoo Kericho 1+ goals
66%
Zoo Kericho 2+ goals
30%
Zoo Kericho 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Chemelil Sugar (draw refunded)
59%
Zoo Kericho (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chemelil Sugar at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.28 · 46 matches

Zoo Kericho away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.94 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chemelil Sugar attack 0.80 + Zoo Kericho defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.37

Zoo Kericho attack 0.90 + Chemelil Sugar defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Chemelil Sugar scores more
43%
level
27%
Zoo Kericho scores more
30%

Chemelil Sugar at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Chemelil Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Chemelil Sugar host Zoo Kericho

April 11, 2020: Chemelil Sugar take on Zoo Kericho in FKF Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Chemelil Sugar host Zoo Kericho at Chemelil Sports Complex.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.