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Chemelil Sugar vs Tusker — FKF Premier League 2018

Chemelil Sugar
Chemelil Sugar
FT
0 – 7
Tusker
Tusker
G. Ogutu 87', 78', 64'
H. Mieno 44'
T. Otieno 20', 10'
H. Sempala 2'
1/4/2020FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 16Muhoroni Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Chemelil Sugar27%
×Draw29%
Tusker44%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chemelil Sugar
0.93
Tusker
1.27

Tusker creates 37% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 145 away

creates per match

Chemelil Sugar
0.84
Tusker
1.34

allows per match

Chemelil Sugar
1.20
Tusker
1.01

finishing

Chemelil Sugar+0.00on par
Tusker+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chemelil Sugar ↓

Tusker →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Chemelil Sugar or draw
56%
Chemelil Sugar or Tusker
71%
Draw or Tusker
73%

Winning margin

Chemelil Sugar wins by 2+
9%
Tusker wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Chemelil Sugar 1+ goals
61%
Chemelil Sugar 2+ goals
24%
Chemelil Sugar 3+ goals
7%
Tusker 1+ goals
72%
Tusker 2+ goals
36%
Tusker 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Chemelil Sugar (draw refunded)
38%
Tusker (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chemelil Sugar at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.20 · 50 matches

Tusker away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.01 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chemelil Sugar attack 0.84 + Tusker defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.93

Tusker attack 1.34 + Chemelil Sugar defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chemelil Sugar scores more
27%
level
29%
Tusker scores more
44%

Tusker at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tusker will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
H. Sempala
10'
T. Otieno
20'
T. Otieno
44'
H. Mieno
64'
G. Ogutu
78'
G. Ogutu
87'
G. Ogutu

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Chemelil Sugar 0–7 Tusker

Tusker beat Chemelil Sugar 7-0 in FKF Premier League on January 4, 2020.

Goals: H. Sempala (2'), T. Otieno (10', 20'), H. Mieno (44'), G. Ogutu (64', 78', 87').

The match was played at Muhoroni Stadium in Muhoroni.