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Chemelil Sugar vs Sony Sugar — FKF Premier League 2018

Chemelil Sugar
Chemelil Sugar
FT
1 – 0
Sony Sugar
Sony Sugar
P. Muchuma 69'
5/29/2019FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 34Chemelil Sports Complex (Chemelil)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Chemelil Sugar28%
×Draw31%
Sony Sugar41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chemelil Sugar
0.84
Sony Sugar
1.10

Sony Sugar creates 31% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 46 away

creates per match

Chemelil Sugar
0.80
Sony Sugar
0.93

allows per match

Chemelil Sugar
1.28
Sony Sugar
0.89

finishing

Chemelil Sugar+0.00on par
Sony Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chemelil Sugar ↓

Sony Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–116%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Chemelil Sugar or draw
59%
Chemelil Sugar or Sony Sugar
69%
Draw or Sony Sugar
72%

Winning margin

Chemelil Sugar wins by 2+
9%
Sony Sugar wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Chemelil Sugar 1+ goals
57%
Chemelil Sugar 2+ goals
21%
Chemelil Sugar 3+ goals
5%
Sony Sugar 1+ goals
67%
Sony Sugar 2+ goals
30%
Sony Sugar 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Chemelil Sugar (draw refunded)
40%
Sony Sugar (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chemelil Sugar at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.28 · 46 matches

Sony Sugar away — creates 0.93, concedes 0.89 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chemelil Sugar attack 0.80 + Sony Sugar defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.84

Sony Sugar attack 0.93 + Chemelil Sugar defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Chemelil Sugar scores more
28%
level
31%
Sony Sugar scores more
41%

Sony Sugar at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sony Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

69'
P. Muchuma

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chemelil Sugar vs Sony Sugar

Chemelil Sugar beat Sony Sugar 1-0 in FKF Premier League on May 29, 2019.

Goals: P. Muchuma (69').

The match was played at Chemelil Sports Complex (Chemelil).