Chemelil Sugar 1–1 Kariobangi Sharks

Chemelil Sugar

FT

1 – 1

Kariobangi Sharks

2/17/2018

FKF Premier League · Round 3Chemelil Sports Complex (Chemelil)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Chemelil Sugar31%

×Draw31%

Kariobangi Sharks39%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chemelil SugarExpected goals in this matchKariobangi Sharks

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

1.08

Chemelil Sugar

0.93

Kariobangi Sharks

1.08

Kariobangi Sharks creates 16% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 142 away

0.84

creates per match

1.05

1.11

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Chemelil Sugar

0.84

Kariobangi Sharks

1.05

allows per match

Chemelil Sugar

1.11

Kariobangi Sharks

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chemelil Sugar+0.00on par

Kariobangi Sharks+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chemelil Sugar ↓

Kariobangi Sharks →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Chemelil Sugar or draw

61%

Chemelil Sugar or Kariobangi Sharks

69%

Draw or Kariobangi Sharks

69%

Winning margin

Chemelil Sugar wins by 2+

11%

Kariobangi Sharks wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Chemelil Sugar 1+ goals

61%

Chemelil Sugar 2+ goals

24%

Chemelil Sugar 3+ goals

7%

Kariobangi Sharks 1+ goals

66%

Kariobangi Sharks 2+ goals

29%

Kariobangi Sharks 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Chemelil Sugar (draw refunded)

44%

Kariobangi Sharks (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chemelil Sugar at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.11 · 57 matches

Kariobangi Sharks away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.02 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chemelil Sugar attack 0.84 + Kariobangi Sharks defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.93

Kariobangi Sharks attack 1.05 + Chemelil Sugar defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Chemelil Sugar scores more

31%

level

31%

Kariobangi Sharks scores more

39%

Kariobangi Sharks at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kariobangi Sharks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff