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Chemelil Sugar vs GOR Mahia — FKF Premier League 2018

Chemelil Sugar
Chemelil Sugar
FT
0 – 4
GOR Mahia
GOR Mahia
1/15/2020FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 2Moi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Chemelil Sugar24%
×Draw29%
GOR Mahia48%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chemelil Sugar
0.82
GOR Mahia
1.30

GOR Mahia creates 59% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 143 away

creates per match

Chemelil Sugar
0.84
GOR Mahia
1.49

allows per match

Chemelil Sugar
1.11
GOR Mahia
0.80

finishing

Chemelil Sugar+0.00on par
GOR Mahia+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chemelil Sugar ↓

GOR Mahia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–116%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Chemelil Sugar or draw
52%
Chemelil Sugar or GOR Mahia
71%
Draw or GOR Mahia
76%

Winning margin

Chemelil Sugar wins by 2+
7%
GOR Mahia wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Chemelil Sugar 1+ goals
56%
Chemelil Sugar 2+ goals
20%
Chemelil Sugar 3+ goals
5%
GOR Mahia 1+ goals
73%
GOR Mahia 2+ goals
37%
GOR Mahia 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Chemelil Sugar (draw refunded)
33%
GOR Mahia (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chemelil Sugar at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.11 · 57 matches

GOR Mahia away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.80 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chemelil Sugar attack 0.84 + GOR Mahia defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.82

GOR Mahia attack 1.49 + Chemelil Sugar defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Chemelil Sugar scores more
24%
level
29%
GOR Mahia scores more
48%

GOR Mahia at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "GOR Mahia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chemelil Sugar vs GOR Mahia

GOR Mahia beat Chemelil Sugar 4-0 in FKF Premier League on January 15, 2020.

The match was played at Moi Stadium in Kisumu.