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Chemelil Sugar vs Bandari — FKF Premier League 2018

Chemelil Sugar
Chemelil Sugar
FT
0 – 1
Bandari
Bandari
6/12/2018FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 19Chemelil Sports Complex (Chemelil)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Chemelil Sugar31%
×Draw32%
Bandari37%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chemelil Sugar
0.89
Bandari
1.01

Bandari creates 13% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 149 away

creates per match

Chemelil Sugar
0.84
Bandari
0.82

allows per match

Chemelil Sugar
1.20
Bandari
0.93

finishing

Chemelil Sugar+0.00on par
Bandari+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chemelil Sugar ↓

Bandari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Chemelil Sugar or draw
63%
Chemelil Sugar or Bandari
68%
Draw or Bandari
69%

Winning margin

Chemelil Sugar wins by 2+
11%
Bandari wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Chemelil Sugar 1+ goals
59%
Chemelil Sugar 2+ goals
22%
Chemelil Sugar 3+ goals
6%
Bandari 1+ goals
64%
Bandari 2+ goals
27%
Bandari 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Chemelil Sugar (draw refunded)
45%
Bandari (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chemelil Sugar at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.20 · 50 matches

Bandari away — creates 0.82, concedes 0.93 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chemelil Sugar attack 0.84 + Bandari defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.89

Bandari attack 0.82 + Chemelil Sugar defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Chemelil Sugar scores more
31%
level
32%
Bandari scores more
37%

Bandari at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bandari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chemelil Sugar vs Bandari

Bandari beat Chemelil Sugar 1-0 in FKF Premier League on June 12, 2018.

The match was played at Chemelil Sports Complex (Chemelil).