Chemelil Sugar vs AFC Leopards — FKF Premier League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 50+ matches
Chemelil Sugar28%
AFC Leopards42%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
AFC Leopards creates 29% more chances
Season form · 50 home / 143 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under65
- Over35
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No58
- Yes42
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Chemelil Sugar ↓
Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Chemelil Sugar at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.20 · 50 matches
AFC Leopards away — creates 1.19, concedes 0.99 · 143 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Chemelil Sugar attack 0.84 + AFC Leopards defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.92
AFC Leopards attack 1.19 + Chemelil Sugar defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.19
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 42%?"
AFC Leopards at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 42% does not mean "AFC Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
GOR MahiaAFC Leopards
Police
Nairobi United
Shabana
Homeboyz
KCB
Tusker
APS Bomet
Mara Sugar
Bandari
Murang'a SEAL
Ulinzi Stars
Mathare United
Posta Rangers FC
Kariobangi Sharks
Bidco United
Sofapaka
NaivasIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Chemelil Sugar host AFC Leopards on Saturday, 5 May 2018 at 12:00. The match is part of the FKF Premier League 2018/2019 season.
FKF Premier League: Chemelil Sugar 0–0 AFC Leopards
Chemelil Sugar and AFC Leopards drew 0-0 in FKF Premier League on May 5, 2018.
The match was played at Moi Stadium (Kisumu).