AFC Leopards 2–0 Chemelil Sugar: Result & Stats

AFC Leopards

FT

2 – 0

Chemelil Sugar

4/4/2019

FKF Premier League · Round 20Kenyatta Stadium (Machakos)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

AFC Leopards51%

×Draw29%

Chemelil Sugar20%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC LeopardsExpected goals in this matchChemelil Sugar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.72

AFC Leopards

1.32

Chemelil Sugar

0.72

AFC Leopards creates 83% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 48 away

1.15

creates per match

0.58

0.86

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

AFC Leopards

1.15

Chemelil Sugar

0.58

allows per match

AFC Leopards

0.86

Chemelil Sugar

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AFC Leopards+0.00on par

Chemelil Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Leopards ↓

Chemelil Sugar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

AFC Leopards or draw

80%

AFC Leopards or Chemelil Sugar

71%

Draw or Chemelil Sugar

49%

Winning margin

AFC Leopards wins by 2+

24%

Chemelil Sugar wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

AFC Leopards 1+ goals

73%

AFC Leopards 2+ goals

38%

AFC Leopards 3+ goals

15%

Chemelil Sugar 1+ goals

51%

Chemelil Sugar 2+ goals

16%

Chemelil Sugar 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

AFC Leopards (draw refunded)

71%

Chemelil Sugar (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Leopards at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.86 · 145 matches

Chemelil Sugar away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.50 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Leopards attack 1.15 + Chemelil Sugar defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.32

Chemelil Sugar attack 0.58 + AFC Leopards defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

AFC Leopards scores more

51%

level

29%

Chemelil Sugar scores more

20%

AFC Leopards at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "AFC Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff