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Chemal vs Garde Nationale — Premier League 2020

Chemal
Chemal
FT
0 – 0
Garde Nationale
Garde Nationale
5/17/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Chemal40%
×Draw31%
Garde Nationale29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chemal
1.06
Garde Nationale
0.86

Chemal creates 23% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 64 away

creates per match

Chemal
1.13
Garde Nationale
0.89

allows per match

Chemal
0.84
Garde Nationale
1.00

finishing

Chemal+0.00on par
Garde Nationale+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chemal ↓

Garde Nationale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Chemal or draw
71%
Chemal or Garde Nationale
69%
Draw or Garde Nationale
60%

Winning margin

Chemal wins by 2+
16%
Garde Nationale wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Chemal 1+ goals
65%
Chemal 2+ goals
29%
Chemal 3+ goals
9%
Garde Nationale 1+ goals
58%
Garde Nationale 2+ goals
21%
Garde Nationale 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Chemal (draw refunded)
58%
Garde Nationale (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chemal at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.84 · 55 matches

Garde Nationale away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.00 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chemal attack 1.13 + Garde Nationale defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Garde Nationale attack 0.89 + Chemal defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chemal scores more
40%
level
31%
Garde Nationale scores more
29%

Chemal at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Chemal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chemal vs Garde Nationale

Chemal and Garde Nationale drew 0-0 in Premier League on May 17, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya in Nouakchott.