Chelyabinsk 1–0 Zenit Izhevsk: Result & Stats

Chelyabinsk

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Zenit Izhevsk

8/15/2021

Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 5Stadion Central'nyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Chelyabinsk60%

×Draw22%

Zenit Izhevsk18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChelyabinskExpected goals in this matchZenit Izhevsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

0.94

Chelyabinsk

1.92

Zenit Izhevsk

0.94

Chelyabinsk creates 104% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 41 away

2.17

creates per match

0.93

0.95

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Chelyabinsk

2.17

Zenit Izhevsk

0.93

allows per match

Chelyabinsk

0.95

Zenit Izhevsk

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chelyabinsk+0.00on par

Zenit Izhevsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelyabinsk ↓

Zenit Izhevsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Chelyabinsk or draw

82%

Chelyabinsk or Zenit Izhevsk

78%

Draw or Zenit Izhevsk

40%

Winning margin

Chelyabinsk wins by 2+

36%

Zenit Izhevsk wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Chelyabinsk 1+ goals

85%

Chelyabinsk 2+ goals

57%

Chelyabinsk 3+ goals

30%

Zenit Izhevsk 1+ goals

61%

Zenit Izhevsk 2+ goals

24%

Zenit Izhevsk 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Chelyabinsk (draw refunded)

77%

Zenit Izhevsk (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelyabinsk at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.95 · 41 matches

Zenit Izhevsk away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.68 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelyabinsk attack 2.17 + Zenit Izhevsk defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.92

Zenit Izhevsk attack 0.93 + Chelyabinsk defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Chelyabinsk scores more

60%

level

22%

Zenit Izhevsk scores more

18%

Chelyabinsk at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Chelyabinsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff