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Chelyabinsk vs Torpedo Moskva — First League 2024

Chelyabinsk
Chelyabinsk
Preview
15:00
Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
8/15/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 6Central Stadium
42%
Chelyabinsk
model favours
42%27%32%

Torpedo Moskva have won 6 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Chelyabinsk42%
×Draw27%
Torpedo Moskva32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chelyabinsk
1.36
Torpedo Moskva
1.15

Chelyabinsk creates 18% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 40 away

creates per match

Chelyabinsk
1.78
Torpedo Moskva
1.18

allows per match

Chelyabinsk
1.11
Torpedo Moskva
0.95

finishing

Chelyabinsk+0.00on par
Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelyabinsk ↓

Torpedo Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Chelyabinsk or draw
68%
Chelyabinsk or Torpedo Moskva
73%
Draw or Torpedo Moskva
58%

Winning margin

Chelyabinsk wins by 2+
19%
Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Chelyabinsk 1+ goals
74%
Chelyabinsk 2+ goals
39%
Chelyabinsk 3+ goals
16%
Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
68%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
32%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Chelyabinsk (draw refunded)
57%
Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelyabinsk at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

Torpedo Moskva away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.95 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelyabinsk attack 1.78 + Torpedo Moskva defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.36

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.18 + Chelyabinsk defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chelyabinsk scores more
42%
level
27%
Torpedo Moskva scores more
32%

Chelyabinsk at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Chelyabinsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 20% of Torpedo Moskva’s matches
  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Chelyabinsk
WDDL
Moskva
WWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chelyabinsk face Torpedo Moskva (First League)

First League returns with Chelyabinsk hosting Torpedo Moskva. Match starts August 15, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Chelyabinsk host Torpedo Moskva at Central Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.