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Chelyabinsk vs Torpedo Miass — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Chelyabinsk
Chelyabinsk
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Torpedo Miass
Torpedo Miass
Unknown 68', 52'
Unknown 43', 10'
7/6/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Chelyabinsk51%
×Draw21%
Torpedo Miass28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chelyabinsk
2.22
Torpedo Miass
1.61

Chelyabinsk creates 38% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

creates per match

Chelyabinsk
1.44
Torpedo Miass
1.33

allows per match

Chelyabinsk
1.89
Torpedo Miass
3.00

finishing

Chelyabinsk+0.00on par
Torpedo Miass+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelyabinsk ↓

Torpedo Miass →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Chelyabinsk or draw
72%
Chelyabinsk or Torpedo Miass
79%
Draw or Torpedo Miass
49%

Winning margin

Chelyabinsk wins by 2+
31%
Torpedo Miass wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Chelyabinsk 1+ goals
89%
Chelyabinsk 2+ goals
65%
Chelyabinsk 3+ goals
38%
Torpedo Miass 1+ goals
80%
Torpedo Miass 2+ goals
48%
Torpedo Miass 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Chelyabinsk (draw refunded)
65%
Torpedo Miass (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelyabinsk at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

Torpedo Miass away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelyabinsk attack 1.44 + Torpedo Miass defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.22

Torpedo Miass attack 1.33 + Chelyabinsk defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Chelyabinsk scores more
51%
level
21%
Torpedo Miass scores more
28%

Chelyabinsk at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Chelyabinsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
43'
52'
68'
Chelyabinsk
Torpedo
Roman Pilipchuk
Manager: Roman Pilipchuk
Vladimir Fedorov
Manager: Vladimir Fedorov

Friendlies Clubs: Chelyabinsk 2–2 Torpedo Miass

Chelyabinsk and Torpedo Miass drew 2-2 in Friendlies Clubs on July 6, 2026.

Goals: ? (10', 43', 52', 68').