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Chelyabinsk vs Rotor Volgograd — First League 2018

Chelyabinsk
Chelyabinsk
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rotor Volgograd
Rotor Volgograd
7/26/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 2Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Chelyabinsk43%
×Draw27%
Rotor Volgograd30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chelyabinsk
1.36
Rotor Volgograd
1.08

Chelyabinsk creates 26% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 87 away

creates per match

Chelyabinsk
1.78
Rotor Volgograd
1.06

allows per match

Chelyabinsk
1.11
Rotor Volgograd
0.95

finishing

Chelyabinsk+0.00on par
Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelyabinsk ↓

Rotor Volgograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Chelyabinsk or draw
70%
Chelyabinsk or Rotor Volgograd
73%
Draw or Rotor Volgograd
57%

Winning margin

Chelyabinsk wins by 2+
20%
Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Chelyabinsk 1+ goals
74%
Chelyabinsk 2+ goals
39%
Chelyabinsk 3+ goals
16%
Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals
66%
Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals
29%
Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Chelyabinsk (draw refunded)
59%
Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelyabinsk at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

Rotor Volgograd away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.95 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelyabinsk attack 1.78 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.36

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.06 + Chelyabinsk defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Chelyabinsk scores more
43%
level
27%
Rotor Volgograd scores more
30%

Chelyabinsk at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Chelyabinsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Chelyabinsk 1–0 Rotor Volgograd

Chelyabinsk beat Rotor Volgograd 1-0 in First League on July 26, 2025.

The match was played at Central Stadium in Chelyabinsk.