Chelyabinsk 2–1 Metallurg Lipetsk: Result & Stats

Chelyabinsk

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Metallurg Lipetsk

9/17/2023

Second League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 10Stadion Central'nyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Chelyabinsk47%

×Draw26%

Metallurg Lipetsk27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChelyabinskExpected goals in this matchMetallurg Lipetsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.03

Chelyabinsk

1.47

Metallurg Lipetsk

1.03

Chelyabinsk creates 43% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 18 away

1.44

creates per match

1.17

0.89

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Chelyabinsk

1.44

Metallurg Lipetsk

1.17

allows per match

Chelyabinsk

0.89

Metallurg Lipetsk

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chelyabinsk+0.00on par

Metallurg Lipetsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelyabinsk ↓

Metallurg Lipetsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Chelyabinsk or draw

73%

Chelyabinsk or Metallurg Lipetsk

74%

Draw or Metallurg Lipetsk

53%

Winning margin

Chelyabinsk wins by 2+

23%

Metallurg Lipetsk wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Chelyabinsk 1+ goals

77%

Chelyabinsk 2+ goals

43%

Chelyabinsk 3+ goals

18%

Metallurg Lipetsk 1+ goals

64%

Metallurg Lipetsk 2+ goals

28%

Metallurg Lipetsk 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Chelyabinsk (draw refunded)

64%

Metallurg Lipetsk (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelyabinsk at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Metallurg Lipetsk away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelyabinsk attack 1.44 + Metallurg Lipetsk defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.47

Metallurg Lipetsk attack 1.17 + Chelyabinsk defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Chelyabinsk scores more

47%

level

26%

Metallurg Lipetsk scores more

27%

Chelyabinsk at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Chelyabinsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff