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Chelyabinsk vs Lada Dimitrovgrad — Second League - Group 4 2020

Chelyabinsk
Chelyabinsk
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lada Dimitrovgrad
Lada Dimitrovgrad
6/4/2021Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 28Stadion Central'nyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Chelyabinsk51%
×Draw23%
Lada Dimitrovgrad26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chelyabinsk
1.83
Lada Dimitrovgrad
1.23

Chelyabinsk creates 49% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 14 away

creates per match

Chelyabinsk
2.17
Lada Dimitrovgrad
1.50

allows per match

Chelyabinsk
0.95
Lada Dimitrovgrad
1.50

finishing

Chelyabinsk+0.00on par
Lada Dimitrovgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelyabinsk ↓

Lada Dimitrovgrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Chelyabinsk or draw
74%
Chelyabinsk or Lada Dimitrovgrad
77%
Draw or Lada Dimitrovgrad
49%

Winning margin

Chelyabinsk wins by 2+
29%
Lada Dimitrovgrad wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Chelyabinsk 1+ goals
84%
Chelyabinsk 2+ goals
54%
Chelyabinsk 3+ goals
28%
Lada Dimitrovgrad 1+ goals
71%
Lada Dimitrovgrad 2+ goals
35%
Lada Dimitrovgrad 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Chelyabinsk (draw refunded)
67%
Lada Dimitrovgrad (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelyabinsk at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.95 · 41 matches

Lada Dimitrovgrad away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelyabinsk attack 2.17 + Lada Dimitrovgrad defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.83

Lada Dimitrovgrad attack 1.50 + Chelyabinsk defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Chelyabinsk scores more
51%
level
23%
Lada Dimitrovgrad scores more
26%

Chelyabinsk at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Chelyabinsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 4: Chelyabinsk 3–0 Lada Dimitrovgrad

Chelyabinsk beat Lada Dimitrovgrad 3-0 in Second League - Group 4 on June 4, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Central'nyj in Chelyabinsk.