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Chelyabinsk vs FK Neftekhimik — First League 2024

Chelyabinsk
Chelyabinsk
Preview
15:00
FK Neftekhimik
FK Neftekhimik
5/1/2027First LeagueFirst League · Round 30Central Stadium
48%
Chelyabinsk
model favours
48%26%26%

Chelyabinsk sit 3, FK Neftekhimik 13 in the table

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Chelyabinsk48%
×Draw26%
FK Neftekhimik26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chelyabinsk
1.54
FK Neftekhimik
1.06

Chelyabinsk creates 45% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 43 away

creates per match

Chelyabinsk
1.78
FK Neftekhimik
1.00

allows per match

Chelyabinsk
1.11
FK Neftekhimik
1.30

finishing

Chelyabinsk+0.00on par
FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelyabinsk ↓

FK Neftekhimik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Chelyabinsk or draw
74%
Chelyabinsk or FK Neftekhimik
74%
Draw or FK Neftekhimik
52%

Winning margin

Chelyabinsk wins by 2+
25%
FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Chelyabinsk 1+ goals
79%
Chelyabinsk 2+ goals
45%
Chelyabinsk 3+ goals
20%
FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals
65%
FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals
29%
FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Chelyabinsk (draw refunded)
65%
FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelyabinsk at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

FK Neftekhimik away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.30 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelyabinsk attack 1.78 + FK Neftekhimik defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.54

FK Neftekhimik attack 1.00 + Chelyabinsk defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Chelyabinsk scores more
48%
level
26%
FK Neftekhimik scores more
26%

Chelyabinsk at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Chelyabinsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Chelyabinsk
WDDL
Neftekhimik
LDWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chelyabinsk vs FK Neftekhimik — Match Preview

Chelyabinsk face FK Neftekhimik on May 1, 2027 in this First League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Chelyabinsk host FK Neftekhimik at Central Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.