Chelyabinsk 2–1 FC UFA: Result & Stats

Chelyabinsk

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

FC UFA

R. Gadzhimuradov 63' (pen), 26'

Z. Yusupov 5'

11/10/2025

First League · Round 18Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Chelyabinsk53%

×Draw25%

FC UFA22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChelyabinskExpected goals in this matchFC UFA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.91

Chelyabinsk

1.59

FC UFA

0.91

Chelyabinsk creates 75% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 50 away

1.78

creates per match

0.70

1.11

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Chelyabinsk

1.78

FC UFA

0.70

allows per match

Chelyabinsk

1.11

FC UFA

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chelyabinsk+0.00on par

FC UFA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelyabinsk ↓

FC UFA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Chelyabinsk or draw

78%

Chelyabinsk or FC UFA

75%

Draw or FC UFA

47%

Winning margin

Chelyabinsk wins by 2+

28%

FC UFA wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Chelyabinsk 1+ goals

80%

Chelyabinsk 2+ goals

47%

Chelyabinsk 3+ goals

21%

FC UFA 1+ goals

60%

FC UFA 2+ goals

23%

FC UFA 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Chelyabinsk (draw refunded)

71%

FC UFA (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelyabinsk at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

FC UFA away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.40 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelyabinsk attack 1.78 + FC UFA defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.59

FC UFA attack 0.70 + Chelyabinsk defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Chelyabinsk scores more

53%

level

25%

FC UFA scores more

22%

Chelyabinsk at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Chelyabinsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

Khetag Kochiev

5'

Z. Yusupov

12'

D. Pushkarev← T. Zhamaletdinov

23'

26'

39'

44'

46'

A. Baranovsky← S. Isaev

46'

D. Akhatov← O. Minatulaev

54'

T. Komissarov←

63'

R. GadzhimuradovPenalty

65'

Zalimkhan Yusupov

70'

A. Tenyaev← A. Perchenok

70'

W. Chimezie← A. Khabalov

76'

A. Nosov← M. Urvantsev

80'

I. Karpuk← M. Ageyan

Statistics

ChelyabinskFC

Discipline

0Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0