Chelyabinsk 1–1 Fakel: Result & Stats

Chelyabinsk

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Fakel

G. Levin 90' (pen)

N. Giorgobiani 90'

9/4/2025

First League · Round 8Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Chelyabinsk46%

×Draw25%

Fakel29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChelyabinskExpected goals in this matchFakel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.16

Chelyabinsk

1.54

Fakel

1.16

Chelyabinsk creates 33% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 89 away

1.78

creates per match

1.20

1.11

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Chelyabinsk

1.78

Fakel

1.20

allows per match

Chelyabinsk

1.11

Fakel

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chelyabinsk+0.00on par

Fakel+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelyabinsk ↓

Fakel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Chelyabinsk or draw

71%

Chelyabinsk or Fakel

75%

Draw or Fakel

54%

Winning margin

Chelyabinsk wins by 2+

23%

Fakel wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Chelyabinsk 1+ goals

79%

Chelyabinsk 2+ goals

45%

Chelyabinsk 3+ goals

20%

Fakel 1+ goals

69%

Fakel 2+ goals

32%

Fakel 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Chelyabinsk (draw refunded)

62%

Fakel (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelyabinsk at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

Fakel away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.31 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelyabinsk attack 1.78 + Fakel defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.54

Fakel attack 1.20 + Chelyabinsk defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Chelyabinsk scores more

46%

level

25%

Fakel scores more

29%

Chelyabinsk at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chelyabinsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

Yuriy Zhuravlev

61'

B. Magomedov← N. Abdokov

61'

G. Gongadze← M. Uridia

73'

A. Gapechkin← B. N'Diaye

73'

D. Pushkarev← B. Gatin

81'

A. Nosov← R. Gadzhimuradov

83'

A. Gabaraev← I. Gaponov

83'

K. Simonov← A. Bagamaev

83'

N. Giorgobiani← I. Alshin

90+3'

90+9'

90+7'

90'

90'

G. LevinPenalty

Statistics

ChelyabinskFakel

Discipline

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0