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Chelyabinsk vs Enisey — First League 2024

Chelyabinsk
Chelyabinsk
Preview
15:00
Enisey
Enisey
8/19/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 7Central Stadium
50%
Chelyabinsk
model favours
50%25%25%

Enisey win just 22% against the top half (vs 57% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Chelyabinsk50%
×Draw25%
Enisey25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chelyabinsk
1.62
Enisey
1.07

Chelyabinsk creates 51% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 39 away

creates per match

Chelyabinsk
1.78
Enisey
1.03

allows per match

Chelyabinsk
1.11
Enisey
1.46

finishing

Chelyabinsk+0.00on par
Enisey+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelyabinsk ↓

Enisey →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Chelyabinsk or draw
75%
Chelyabinsk or Enisey
75%
Draw or Enisey
50%

Winning margin

Chelyabinsk wins by 2+
26%
Enisey wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Chelyabinsk 1+ goals
80%
Chelyabinsk 2+ goals
48%
Chelyabinsk 3+ goals
22%
Enisey 1+ goals
66%
Enisey 2+ goals
29%
Enisey 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Chelyabinsk (draw refunded)
67%
Enisey (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelyabinsk at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

Enisey away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.46 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelyabinsk attack 1.78 + Enisey defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.62

Enisey attack 1.03 + Chelyabinsk defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Chelyabinsk scores more
50%
level
25%
Enisey scores more
25%

Chelyabinsk at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Chelyabinsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Chelyabinsk
WDDL
Enisey
WDWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chelyabinsk vs Enisey — Match Preview

Chelyabinsk face Enisey on August 19, 2026 in this First League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Chelyabinsk host Enisey at Central Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.