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Chelyabinsk vs Chertanovo Moscow — Cup 2019

Chelyabinsk
Chelyabinsk
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chertanovo Moscow
Chertanovo Moscow
9/4/2024CupCup · Regions Path - 3rd RoundStadion Central'nyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Chelyabinsk45%
×Draw29%
Chertanovo Moscow26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chelyabinsk
1.25
Chertanovo Moscow
0.89

Chelyabinsk creates 40% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Chelyabinsk
1.00
Chertanovo Moscow
1.17

allows per match

Chelyabinsk
0.60
Chertanovo Moscow
1.50

finishing

Chelyabinsk+0.00on par
Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelyabinsk ↓

Chertanovo Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Chelyabinsk or draw
74%
Chelyabinsk or Chertanovo Moscow
71%
Draw or Chertanovo Moscow
55%

Winning margin

Chelyabinsk wins by 2+
20%
Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Chelyabinsk 1+ goals
71%
Chelyabinsk 2+ goals
36%
Chelyabinsk 3+ goals
13%
Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals
59%
Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals
22%
Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Chelyabinsk (draw refunded)
63%
Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelyabinsk at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Chertanovo Moscow away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelyabinsk attack 1.00 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.17 + Chelyabinsk defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Chelyabinsk scores more
45%
level
29%
Chertanovo Moscow scores more
26%

Chelyabinsk at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Chelyabinsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chelyabinsk vs Chertanovo Moscow

Chelyabinsk beat Chertanovo Moscow 1-0 in Cup on September 4, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Central'nyj in Chelyabinsk.