Cheltenham 1–3 Wycombe: Result & Stats | League One

Cheltenham

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Wycombe

A. Williams 45'

O. Pendlebury 79', 74'

S. Vokes 14'

8/14/2021

League One · Round 2Jonny-Rocks Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Cheltenham36%

×Draw27%

Wycombe38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CheltenhamExpected goals in this matchWycombe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.29

Cheltenham

1.25

Wycombe

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 158 away

1.19

creates per match

1.26

1.32

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Cheltenham

1.19

Wycombe

1.26

allows per match

Cheltenham

1.32

Wycombe

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cheltenham+0.00on par

Wycombe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Wycombe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw

62%

Cheltenham or Wycombe

73%

Draw or Wycombe

64%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+

15%

Wycombe wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals

71%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

36%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

13%

Wycombe 1+ goals

72%

Wycombe 2+ goals

37%

Wycombe 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

49%

Wycombe (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.32 · 69 matches

Wycombe away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.32 · 158 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.19 + Wycombe defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

Wycombe attack 1.26 + Cheltenham defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cheltenham scores more

36%

level

27%

Wycombe scores more

38%

Wycombe at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

O. Pendlebury

Wycombe · M

8.7

Match Events

14'

S. Vokes↳ J. Jacobson

45'

A. Williams↳ C. Wright

57'

K. Vassell← A. May

60'

Ellis Chapman

68'

C. Thomas← E. Chapman

74'

O. Pendlebury↳ S. Kaikai

75'

N. Freeman← G. McCleary

76'

A. Akinfenwa← S. Vokes

79'

O. Pendlebury

80'

T. Perry← S. Long

90+5'

Chris Hussey

90+2'

C. Thompson← A. Mehmeti

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CheltenhamWycombe

Overview

60%Possession40%

13Total Shots11

7Corners8

9Fouls9

Shots

13Total Shots11

6On Target6

0Off Target5

7Blocked0

8Inside Box6

5Outside Box5

Passing

60%Possession40%

396Total Passes254

266Accurate Passes135

67%Pass Accuracy53%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls9

2Yellow Cards0

1Offsides0