Cheltenham 0–2 Rotherham: Result & Stats

Cheltenham

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Rotherham

R. Edmonds-Green 75'

W. Grigg 51'

10/2/2021

League One · Round 11Jonny-Rocks Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Cheltenham46%

×Draw27%

Rotherham27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CheltenhamExpected goals in this matchRotherham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.00

Cheltenham

1.38

Rotherham

1.00

Cheltenham creates 38% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 25 away

1.20

creates per match

0.80

1.20

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Cheltenham

1.20

Rotherham

0.80

allows per match

Cheltenham

1.20

Rotherham

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cheltenham+0.00on par

Rotherham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Rotherham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw

73%

Cheltenham or Rotherham

73%

Draw or Rotherham

54%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+

22%

Rotherham wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals

75%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

40%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

16%

Rotherham 1+ goals

63%

Rotherham 2+ goals

26%

Rotherham 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

63%

Rotherham (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Rotherham away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.56 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.20 + Rotherham defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.38

Rotherham attack 0.80 + Cheltenham defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cheltenham scores more

46%

level

27%

Rotherham scores more

27%

Cheltenham at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cheltenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

S. Flinders

Cheltenham · G

8.2

Match Events

51'

W. Grigg

68'

C. Ogbene← K. Sadlier

68'

M. Miller← S. Ferguson

74'

K. Vassell← K. Joseph

75'

R. Edmonds-Green↳ M. Smith

77'

F. Ladapo← W. Grigg

81'

E. Chapman← L. Sercombe

81'

C. Norton← A. May

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CheltenhamRotherham

Overview

45%Possession55%

8Total Shots17

3Corners11

7Fouls10

Shots

8Total Shots17

1On Target10

4Off Target4

3Blocked3

7Inside Box13

1Outside Box4

Passing

45%Possession55%

328Total Passes370

180Accurate Passes242

55%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

8Saves1

Discipline

7Fouls10

3Offsides2