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Cheltenham vs Oxford United — League One 2018

Cheltenham
Cheltenham
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Oxford United
Oxford United
11/25/2023League OneLeague One · Round 19Completely-Suzuki Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Cheltenham36%
×Draw26%
Oxford United38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cheltenham
1.29
Oxford United
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 137 away

creates per match

Cheltenham
1.19
Oxford United
1.36

allows per match

Cheltenham
1.32
Oxford United
1.39

finishing

Cheltenham+0.00on par
Oxford United+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Oxford United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw
62%
Cheltenham or Oxford United
74%
Draw or Oxford United
64%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+
16%
Oxford United wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals
72%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
37%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
14%
Oxford United 1+ goals
74%
Oxford United 2+ goals
39%
Oxford United 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)
48%
Oxford United (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.32 · 69 matches

Oxford United away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.39 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.19 + Oxford United defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.29

Oxford United attack 1.36 + Cheltenham defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cheltenham scores more
36%
level
26%
Oxford United scores more
38%

Oxford United at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Oxford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cheltenham vs Oxford United

Cheltenham beat Oxford United 2-0 in League One on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Completely-Suzuki Stadium in Cheltenham, Gloucestershire.