Cheltenham 1–0 Mansfield Town: Result & Stats

Cheltenham

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mansfield Town

R. Reid 65'

2/22/2020

League Two · Round 35Jonny-Rocks Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Cheltenham39%

×Draw27%

Mansfield Town34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CheltenhamExpected goals in this matchMansfield Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.21

Cheltenham

1.32

Mansfield Town

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 93 home / 141 away

1.49

creates per match

1.25

1.17

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Cheltenham

1.49

Mansfield Town

1.25

allows per match

Cheltenham

1.17

Mansfield Town

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cheltenham+0.00on par

Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Mansfield Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw

66%

Cheltenham or Mansfield Town

73%

Draw or Mansfield Town

61%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+

18%

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals

73%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

38%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

15%

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

70%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

34%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

54%

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.17 · 93 matches

Mansfield Town away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.16 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.49 + Mansfield Town defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.32

Mansfield Town attack 1.25 + Cheltenham defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cheltenham scores more

39%

level

27%

Mansfield Town scores more

34%

Cheltenham at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cheltenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

O. Evans

Cheltenham · G

7.5

Match Events

32'

Tom Nichols

56'

R. Reid← L. Varney

56'

C. Thomas← C. Clements

57'

A. Addai← T. Nichols

65'

R. Reid↳ R. Broom

71'

M. Benning← H. Charsley

86'

C. Davies← K. Watts

90'

Jake Doyle Hayes

90'

Alfie May

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CheltenhamMansfield

Overview

59%Possession41%

13Total Shots11

4Corners4

10Fouls8

Shots

13Total Shots11

2On Target2

8Off Target5

3Blocked4

8Inside Box6

5Outside Box5

Passing

59%Possession41%

439Total Passes298

290Accurate Passes148

66%Pass Accuracy50%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls8

3Yellow Cards0

4Offsides3