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Cheltenham vs Grimsby — League Two 2018

Cheltenham
Cheltenham
Preview
14:00
Grimsby
Grimsby
9/5/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 5Whaddon Road
Big match
48%
Grimsby
model favours
28%25%48%

Cheltenham sit 18, Grimsby 6 in the table

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Cheltenham28%
×Draw25%
Grimsby48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cheltenham
1.16
Grimsby
1.60

Grimsby creates 38% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

creates per match

Cheltenham
1.11
Grimsby
1.67

allows per match

Cheltenham
1.54
Grimsby
1.20

finishing

Cheltenham+0.22scores more
Grimsby+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Grimsby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw
52%
Cheltenham or Grimsby
75%
Draw or Grimsby
72%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+
11%
Grimsby wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals
69%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
32%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
11%
Grimsby 1+ goals
80%
Grimsby 2+ goals
47%
Grimsby 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)
37%
Grimsby (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.54 · 12 matches

Grimsby away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.20 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.11 + Grimsby defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.16

Grimsby attack 1.67 + Cheltenham defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cheltenham scores more
28%
level
25%
Grimsby scores more
48%

Grimsby at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Grimsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Cheltenham
Balanced
Grimsby
Attack-heavy
48%Possession52%
65%Pass accuracy68%
10.7Shots12.6
1.08xGBiggest gap1.65
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
CheltenhamGrimsby

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

0
Cheltenham
3
Draws
5
Grimsby
Avg goals: 3BTTS: 63%
0–21–71–12–31–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Cheltenham
WLLL
Grimsby
DDWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Cheltenham host Grimsby

September 5, 2026: Cheltenham take on Grimsby in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Cheltenham host Grimsby at Whaddon Road.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.