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Cheltenham vs Grimsby — League Two 2018

Cheltenham
Cheltenham
CANC
00:00
Grimsby
Grimsby
3/21/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 40Jonny-Rocks Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Cheltenham26%
×Draw25%
Grimsby49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cheltenham
1.12
Grimsby
1.62

Grimsby creates 45% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

creates per match

Cheltenham
1.13
Grimsby
1.62

allows per match

Cheltenham
1.61
Grimsby
1.11

finishing

Cheltenham+0.18scores more
Grimsby-0.02on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Grimsby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw
51%
Cheltenham or Grimsby
75%
Draw or Grimsby
74%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+
10%
Grimsby wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals
67%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
31%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
10%
Grimsby 1+ goals
80%
Grimsby 2+ goals
48%
Grimsby 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)
35%
Grimsby (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.61 · 13 matches

Grimsby away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.11 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.13 + Grimsby defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.12

Grimsby attack 1.62 + Cheltenham defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Cheltenham scores more
26%
level
25%
Grimsby scores more
49%

Grimsby at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Grimsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cheltenham face Grimsby (League Two)

League Two returns with Cheltenham hosting Grimsby. Match starts March 21, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Cheltenham host Grimsby at Jonny-Rocks Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.