Cheltenham 2–0 Carlisle: Result & Stats

Cheltenham

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Carlisle

L. Varney 45'

G. Reilly 15'

8/20/2019

League Two · Round 4Jonny-Rocks Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Cheltenham44%

×Draw26%

Carlisle30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CheltenhamExpected goals in this matchCarlisle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.12

Cheltenham

1.42

Carlisle

1.12

Cheltenham creates 27% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 115 away

1.49

creates per match

1.07

1.17

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Cheltenham

1.49

Carlisle

1.07

allows per match

Cheltenham

1.17

Carlisle

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cheltenham+0.00on par

Carlisle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Carlisle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw

70%

Cheltenham or Carlisle

74%

Draw or Carlisle

56%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+

21%

Carlisle wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals

76%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

41%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

17%

Carlisle 1+ goals

67%

Carlisle 2+ goals

31%

Carlisle 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

60%

Carlisle (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.17 · 93 matches

Carlisle away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.35 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.49 + Carlisle defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.42

Carlisle attack 1.07 + Cheltenham defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cheltenham scores more

44%

level

26%

Carlisle scores more

30%

Cheltenham at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cheltenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

B. Tozer

15'

G. Reilly↳ J. Doyle-Hayes

35'

S. Scougall

43'

J. Iredale

45'

L. Varney↳ C. Clements

46'

56'

71'

71'

79'

85'

T. Campbell← L. Varney

89'

M. Sagaf← J. Bridge

Cheltenham

Carlisle

1

17

2

3

27

8

10

19

▼

Bridge

7

Thomas

11

▼

McKirdy

25

▼

1

4

5

2

17

▼

Debayo

26

Greaves

8

A

Clements

21

A

Doyle-Hay

11

Broom

32

⚽

▼

Varney

20

⚽

▼

Reilly

Manager: M. Duff

71'▲C. Hussey←▼J. Debayo

79'▲G. Lloyd←▼G. Reilly

85'▲T. Campbell←▼L. Varney

Cheltenham substitutes

3Hussey19Lloyd10Campbell22Lovett6Bowry7Thomas18Brennan

Manager: S. Pressley

46'▲O. Olomola←▼R. Loft

71'▲H. Hope←▼H. McKirdy

89'▲M. Sagaf←▼J. Bridge

Carlisle substitutes

24Olomola9Hope28Sagaf22Gray5Mellish31Sørensen23Branthwaite