Carlisle 0–1 Cheltenham: Result & Stats

Carlisle

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Cheltenham

E. Archer 17'

10/26/2024

League Two · Round 14Brunton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Carlisle40%

×Draw28%

Cheltenham33%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CarlisleExpected goals in this matchCheltenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.13

Carlisle

1.27

Cheltenham

1.13

Carlisle creates 12% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 90 away

1.21

creates per match

1.08

1.17

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Carlisle

1.21

Cheltenham

1.08

allows per match

Carlisle

1.17

Cheltenham

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carlisle+0.00on par

Cheltenham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlisle ↓

Cheltenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Carlisle or draw

67%

Carlisle or Cheltenham

72%

Draw or Cheltenham

60%

Winning margin

Carlisle wins by 2+

18%

Cheltenham wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Carlisle 1+ goals

72%

Carlisle 2+ goals

36%

Carlisle 3+ goals

14%

Cheltenham 1+ goals

68%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

31%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Carlisle (draw refunded)

55%

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlisle at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.17 · 111 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.32 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlisle attack 1.21 + Cheltenham defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.27

Cheltenham attack 1.08 + Carlisle defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Carlisle scores more

40%

level

28%

Cheltenham scores more

33%

Carlisle at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Carlisle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

H. Sohna

Cheltenham · M

8.2

Match Events

17'

29'

46'

46'

55'

60'

60'

J. Mellish← B. Barclay

60'

T. Burey← C. Wyke

69'

Harrison Neal

73'

T. Pett← L. Young

82'

83'

85'

89'

89'

J. Colwill← J. Thomas

90+1'

Lewis Payne

90+6'

J. Vela← C. Guy

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CarlisleCheltenham

Overview

60%Possession40%

9Total Shots14

5Corners5

14Fouls16

Shots

9Total Shots14

1On Target4

4Off Target9

4Blocked1

3Inside Box8

6Outside Box6

Passing

60%Possession40%

440Total Passes281

290Accurate Passes137

66%Pass Accuracy49%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls16

4Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1