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Cheltenham vs Burton Albion — League One 2018

Cheltenham
Cheltenham
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Burton Albion
Burton Albion
4/1/2023League OneLeague One · Round 39Completely-Suzuki Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Cheltenham41%
×Draw26%
Burton Albion32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cheltenham
1.40
Burton Albion
1.21

Cheltenham creates 16% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 179 away

creates per match

Cheltenham
1.19
Burton Albion
1.09

allows per match

Cheltenham
1.32
Burton Albion
1.60

finishing

Cheltenham+0.00on par
Burton Albion+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Burton Albion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw
68%
Cheltenham or Burton Albion
74%
Draw or Burton Albion
59%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+
19%
Burton Albion wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals
75%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
41%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
17%
Burton Albion 1+ goals
70%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
34%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)
56%
Burton Albion (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.32 · 69 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.60 · 179 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.19 + Burton Albion defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.40

Burton Albion attack 1.09 + Cheltenham defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cheltenham scores more
41%
level
26%
Burton Albion scores more
32%

Cheltenham at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cheltenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cheltenham vs Burton Albion

Cheltenham and Burton Albion drew 0-0 in League One on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Completely-Suzuki Stadium in Cheltenham, Gloucestershire.