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Cheltenham vs Bristol Rovers — League Two 2018

Cheltenham
Cheltenham
Preview
15:00
Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers
11/21/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 16Whaddon Road
Big match
44%
Bristol Rovers
model favours
30%26%44%

Bristol Rovers score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Cheltenham30%
×Draw26%
Bristol Rovers44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cheltenham
1.18
Bristol Rovers
1.48

Bristol Rovers creates 25% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

creates per match

Cheltenham
1.13
Bristol Rovers
1.35

allows per match

Cheltenham
1.61
Bristol Rovers
1.23

finishing

Cheltenham+0.18scores more
Bristol Rovers-0.10scores less

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Bristol Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw
56%
Cheltenham or Bristol Rovers
74%
Draw or Bristol Rovers
70%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+
12%
Bristol Rovers wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals
69%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
33%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
12%
Bristol Rovers 1+ goals
77%
Bristol Rovers 2+ goals
43%
Bristol Rovers 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)
41%
Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.61 · 13 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.23 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.13 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.18

Bristol Rovers attack 1.35 + Cheltenham defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cheltenham scores more
30%
level
26%
Bristol Rovers scores more
44%

Bristol Rovers at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bristol Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 82% of Bristol Rovers’s matches
  • 73% of Bristol Rovers’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Cheltenham
Balanced
Bristol Rovers
Defensively solid
48%Possession52%
65%Pass accuracy66%
10.6Shots12.5
1.08xGBiggest gap1.38
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
CheltenhamBristol Rovers

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

1
Cheltenham
1
Draws
4
Bristol Rovers
Avg goals: 3.2BTTS: 67%
0–41–01–31–11–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Cheltenham
WLLL
Rovers
DDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Cheltenham host Bristol Rovers

November 21, 2026: Cheltenham take on Bristol Rovers in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Cheltenham host Bristol Rovers at Whaddon Road.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.